American mixed messages contributed to conflict

The International Herald Tribune, a newspaper that I have grown to greatly appreciate of late, published August 13 a behind-the-scenes account of how mixed messages on America’s support to the Georgian government contributed to the escalation of the conflict:

During a private dinner on July 9, Rice’s aides say, she warned President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia not to get into a military conflict with Russia that Georgia could not win. “She told him, in no uncertain terms, that he had to put a non-use of force pledge on the table,” according to a senior administration official who accompanied Rice to the Georgian capital.

But publicly, Rice struck a different tone, one of defiant support for Georgia in the face of Russian pressure. “I’m going to visit a friend and I don’t expect much comment about the United States going to visit a friend,” she told reporters just before arriving in Tbilisi, even as Russian jets were conducting intimidating maneuvers over South Ossetia.

I have long said that with our policy in the region — a cocktail of emboldening Georgia and provoking Russia, that we were making conflict in these flash points more likely. As Matthew Yglesias pointed out, our very insistence that Georgia be a part of the NATO military alliance despite its ongoing territorial disputes with Russia sent the signal that we would back Georgia militarily in those endeavors.

As the tensions got hotter, State department officials claim they repeatedly told Georgia to stand down and not provoke Russia. Even American military advisers in Georgia working to train the Georgian army were unaware the country was preparing an attack on South Ossetia.

“We told them they had to keep their unilateral cease-fire,” the official said. “We said, ‘Be smart about this, don’t go in and don’t fall for the Russian provocation. Do not do this.’ “

Around the same time, members of the Georgia army unit assigned to a training program under American advisers did not show up for the day’s exercises. In retrospect, American officials said, it is obvious that they had been ordered to mobilize for the mission in South Ossetia by their commanders.

“This caught us totally by surprise,” said one military officer who tracks events in the region, including the American-Georgian training effort. “It really knocked us off our chairs.”