Russian war justifications losing credibility

Russian accusations of genocide and wanton killing of around 2,000 South Ossetian civilians at the hands of the Georgian military steadily lost credibility over the weekend as several independent groups of researchers and reporters sought out the true death toll — finding it was likely less than 100, a number Georgian officials had estimated from the beginning.

Doctors from the only Tskhinvali hospital told Human Rights Watch they treated 273 wounded, both military and civilian between August 6 and 12, 44 of which died.

As the Los Angeles Times reported, however, many Ossetian residents afraid to go into the streets during the fighting either buried their loved ones in the alentours of their home or evacuated themselves, leaving the bodies behind. That may be true, but one way or the other, the final tally of dead will be far below Russia’s dramatic claims of 2,000 South Ossetians dead in a city devastated to the point of Stalingrad in World War II.

Burned-out tanks remain scattered on the streets of Tskhinvali, but the city’s roads and bridges remain basically unscathed. Many buildings had windows shattered and roofs destroyed; some appear to have caught fire and burned to charred shells. The streets around the government center seem to have borne the brunt of the fighting, but few walls appear to have fallen in the assault.

Similarly, early Russian claims that 10 to 15 of its peacekeepers were deliberately killed in the surprise attack have also fallen silent. A Russian team of investigators is currently investigating these “murders” but it is unlikely the evidence will ever be given up for independent analysis.

All of this is a painful blow to Russia’s credibility and justification for its massive counter-attack on mainland Georgia following the Tskhinvali raid. It was already clear that Russia was using the Georgian attack as a pretext for a large operation against Russia’s southern adversary, however the arbitrarity of that pretext was never thought to be so severe.

Russia can still claim some justification for its attack, as the Georgian military operation did violate a internationally moderated cease-fire, and Russia had already stated clearly that any military action against South Ossetia would bring about a Russian military response. However, the death of the genocide argument amounts to the mysterious lack of WMD’s in Iraq.

What is left is a war of choice agression, albeit one that the United States is just as guilty of as Russia.