Ukraine’s governing coalition officially collapses

Following weeks of speculation, Ukraine’s governing coalition has officially broken up today, requiring either new elections within 30 days or the formation of a new — likely radically different — governing coalition.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko had long been feuding after the two took power in the Orange Revolution in 2004. In addition to vying for power in the lead-up to the 2010 presidential elections, the two have recently clashed horns over the country’s relationship to Moscow and its position on the Georgian conflict.

Just to toot my own horn a bit, although many Western political commentators claimed that Russia’s brief war with Georgia had pushed Russia’s remaining neighbors toward the West, I asserted that at least in Ukraine, the war had merely aggravated the country’s preexisting political rifts, and indeed threatened a return to a pro-Moscow government.

Now there is new evidence of my theory. Both Le Monde and Libération purport that a new alliance of Timoshenko’s Blok Yulii and the pro-Russian Party of Regions, is quite possible. Already Party of Regions head Viktor Yanukovich has called for the creation of such a governing coalition — one that would give Ukraine an essentially pro-Russian government. Yushchenko’s spokesman has said that such an alliance “de facto” already exists.

One way or the other, Yushchenko’s pro-Western push is almost sure to either be slowed or halted. His popularity has plummeted in the wake of government infighting and increased tensions with Russia while a high percentage of the Ukrainian population maintains affinity for Moscow. According to a poll conducted this month by the Kiev International Sociology Institute, if parliamentary elections were to be held, Yushchenko’s party would reap only 4 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, Blok Yulii and the Party of Regions would purportedly receive 24 and 23 percent of the vote respectively.

Keep tuning into Three Kings, this is a situation I will be following closely.