U.S. intelligence acknowledges diminished role for America in future

Thomas Fingar, the U.S. intelligence community’s top analyst, said today that the United States will have a drastically reduced presence in the world in 2025.

Fingar’s speech, which is to be followed by a formal report, confirms the assertions of political analysts like Fareed Zakaria, who have concluded that American power will wane in the coming century.

What is most interesting is that the report represents a view, clearly endorsed by the intelligence community, that is far ahead of opinions and policies of contemporary politicians. For example, the report states that the U.S. intelligence community has “accepted the consensual scientific view of global warming” despite the fact the Bush Administration, and much of America’s conservative wing has thus far refused to do so.

Fingar also said national security threats are in major transition. While both presidential candidates have focused on defeating terrorism as a America’s biggest national security objective the report downplayed al-Qaeda’s strength, and instead warned of problems in the areas of energy security and climate change.

Since the last such report, the intelligence community has projected a declining role for al-Qaeda, which was deemed likely to become “increasingly decentralized, evolving into an eclectic array of groups, cells, and individuals.” Inspired by al-Qaeda, “regionally based groups, and individuals labeled simply as jihadists — united by a common hatred of moderate regimes and the West — are likely to conduct terrorist attacks,” the 2004 document said.[. . .]

Energy security will also become a major issue as India, China and other countries join the United States in seeking oil, gas and other sources for electricity. The Chinese get a good portion of their oil from Iran, as do many U.S. allies in Europe, limiting U.S. options on Iran. “So the turn-the-spigot-off kind of thing — even if we could do it — would be counterproductive.”[. . .]

The predicted shift toward a less U.S.-centric world will come at a time when the planet is facing a growing environmental crisis, caused largely by climate change, Fingar said. By 2025, droughts, food shortages and scarcity of fresh water will plague large swaths of the globe, from northern China to the Horn of Africa.

For poorer countries, climate change “could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back,” Fingar said, while the United States will face “Dust Bowl” conditions in the parched Southwest. He said U.S. intelligence agencies accepted the consensual scientific view of global warming, including the conclusion that it is too late to avert significant disruption over the next two decades. The conclusions are in line with an intelligence assessment produced this summer that characterized global warming as a serious security threat for the coming decades.

Floods and droughts will trigger mass migrations and political upheaval in many parts of the developing world. But among industrialized states, declining birthrates will create new economic stresses as populations become grayer. In China, Japan and Europe, the ratio of working adults to seniors “begins to approach one to three,” he said.

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