Azerbaijan should step away from Turkey, towards Russia: Azeri diplomatic analyst

Fariz Ismailzade, director of the foreign policy programs of the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy, said in an interview with Azeri news service, Trend News, that as the balance of influence and power in the Caucasus continues to change, Azerbaijan should look to Russia, rather than its traditional ally, Turkey, as a strategic partner.

Fariz Ismailzade, speaking with Trend news in Baku, photo pulled from Trend.az

Trend News spoke with him after he returned from the Wilton Park Conference in London, where representatives and analysts from Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan met with EU officials to talk about South Caucasus conflicts and possible EU integration.

He said he concluded from the conference that Western influence in the region is waning and the traditional alliances in the region are slowly coming apart. Much of his pessimism seemed to be driven by the EU’s support for reopening the Turkish-Armenian border — a move Azerbaijan opposes, feeling it relieves pressure on Armenia to relinquish control of the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

“Firstly, the EU does not understand our realities and our internal problems. Secondly, in my opinion, the West is too optimistic about the opening of Turkish-Armenian border, believing that it is even useful for the peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. All our arguments that the situation is only getting worse from obstinacy of Armenia have not led to results,” [he said.]

Furthermore, he said, the West has become less committed to Georgia since the Obama administration has taken office, and now Western nations are more interested in peace-building between Turkey and Armenia. He said these actions directly “question the existence of such a strategically important project as Nabucco, and Azerbaijan gradually can increase the volume of gas supplies to Russia.”

Azerbaijan is expected to provide a crucial portion of natural gas to the EU-backed Nabucco pipeline, which would run from Central Europe through the Balkans and Turkey to Caspian Sea gas fields. If Azerbaijan were to sell the rights to its natural gas supply to Russia — which has been vying aggressively for it — then Nabucco’s viability would be thrown into great uncertainty.

Overall, he said Turkey risks losing Azerbaijan as a strategic ally, and Russia’s stock is going up.

“[I]n the near future, Azerbaijan can really get closer with Russia and the situation in the region can change. If earlier in the Caucasus there were clear alliance ligaments: Russia-Armenia, Turkey – Azerbaijan, West – Georgia, after the Georgian war, the accent changed. And now Azerbaijan considers Russia as a strategic ally. At the moment everything is going to ensure that Russia becomes stronger, and the West’s position in the South Caucasus is weakening. Now, Turkey and Russia become major players in the Caucasus.”